Need to let loose a primal scream without collecting footnotes first? Have a sneer percolating in your system but not enough time/energy to make a whole post about it? Go forth and be mid: Welcome to the Stubsack, your first port of call for learning fresh Awful youāll near-instantly regret.
Any awful.systems sub may be subsneered in this subthread, techtakes or no.
If your sneer seems higher quality than you thought, feel free to cutānāpaste it into its own post ā thereās no quota for posting and the bar really isnāt that high.
The post Xitter web has spawned soo many āesotericā right wing freaks, but thereās no appropriate sneer-space for them. Iām talking redscare-ish, reality challenged āculture criticsā who write about everything but understand nothing. Iām talking about reply-guys who make the same 6 tweets about the same 3 subjects. Theyāre inescapable at this point, yet I donāt see them mocked (as much as they should be)
Like, there was one dude a while back who insisted that women couldnāt be surgeons because they didnāt believe in the moon or in stars? I think each and every one of these guys is uniquely fucked up and if I canāt escape them, I would love to sneer at them.
(Taking over for Gerard this time. Special thanks to him for starting this.)
Saltman has a new blogpost out he calls āThree Observationsā that I feel too tired to sneer properly but Iām sure will be featured in pivot-to-ai pretty soon.
Of note that he seems to admit chatbot abilities have plateaued for the current technological paradigm, by way of offering the āobservationā that model intelligence is logarithmically dependent on the resources used to train and run it (i = log( r )) so itās officially diminishing returns from now on.
Second observation is that when a thing gets cheaper itās used more, i.e. theyāll be pushing even harded to shove it into everything.
Third observation is that
which is hilarious.
The rest of the blogpost appears to mostly be fanfiction about the efficiency of their agents that I didnāt read too closely.
Are they trying to imply that when they will make it cheaper by shoving it everywhere? I honestly canāt see how that logic is holding together
as I read it, itās an attempt at reference to economy of scale under the thesis āAI silicon will keep getting cheaper because more and more people will produce itā as the main underpinning for how to reduce their unit economics. which, yāknow, great! thatās exactly what people like to hear about manufacturing and such! lovely! itās only expensive because itās the start! oh, the woe of the inventor, the hard and expensive path of the start!
except that doesnāt hold up in any reasonable manner.
theyāre not using J Random GPU, theyāre using top-end purpose-focused shit thatās come into existing literally as co-evolution feedback from the fucking industry that is using it. even some hypothetical path where we do just suddenly have a glut of cheap model-training silicon everywhere, imo itās far far far more likely to be an esp32 situation than a āyeah this gtx17900 cost me like 20 bucksā situation. even the āconsumer high endā of āsure your phone has a gpu in itā is still very suboptimal for doing the kind of shit theyāre doing (even if you could probably make a great cursed project out of a cluster of phones doing model training or whatever)
falls into the same vein of shit as āa few thousand daysā imo - something thatās a great soundbite, easily digestible market speak, but if you actually look at the substance itās comprehensive nonsense
Yeah, I agree. I think that this argument that is made there is a false. The logic error imo is claiming this statement is true: things get cheaper as they get used more, therefore if we make it used more, it will get cheaper.
Could also be donāt worry about deepseek type messaging that addresses concerns without naming names, to tell us that a drastic reduction in infrastructure costs was foretold by the writing of St Moore and was thus always inevitable on the way to immanentizing the AGI, į¼Ī»Ī»Ī·Ī»ĪæĻĻĪ±.
The surface claim seems to be the opposite, he says that because of Mooreās law AI rates will soon be at least 10x cheaper and because of Mercury in retrograde this will cause usage to increase muchly. I read that as meaning we should expect to see chatbots pushed in even more places they shouldnāt be even though their capabilities have already stagnated as per observation one.
My big robot is really expensive to build.
If big robot parts become cheaper, I will declare that the big robot must be bigger, lest somebody poorer than me also build a big robot.
My robot must be made or else I wonāt be able to show off the biggest, most expensive big robot.
QED, I deserve more money to build the big robot.
P.S. And for the naysayers, just remember that that robot will be so big that your critiques wonāt apply to it, as it is too big.
christ this is dumb as shit
My ability to guess the solution of Boolean SAT problems also scales roughly with the log of number of tries you give me.
It probably deserves its own post on techtakes, but letās do a little here.
Diogenesās corpse turns
Of course Saltman means āall of my buddiesā as he doesnāt consider 99% of the human population as human.
Ugh. Amongst many things wrong here, people didnāt jerk each other off to scifi/spec fic fantasies about the other inventions.
AGI IS NOT EVEN FUCKING REAL YOU SHIT. YOU CANāT CURE FUCK WITH DREAMS
I must be blind.
āIntelligenceā in no way has been quantified here, so this is a meaningless observation. āDataā is finite, which negates the idea of ācontinuousā gains. āPredictableā is a meaningless qualifier. This makes no fucking sense!
āMooreās lawā didnāt change shit! It was a fucking observation! Anyone who misuses āmooreās lawsā outta be mangioneād. Also, if this is true, just show a graph or something? Donāt just literally cherrypick one window?
āLinearly increasing intelligenceā is meaningless as intelligence has not beenā¦ wait, Iām repeating myself. Also, āsuper-exponentialā only to the āsocioā that Olā Salty cares about, which I have mentioned earlier.
Oh hm but none of them are true. What now???
Stopping here for now, I can only take so much garbage in at once.
dudeās gone full lesswrong. feels nostalgic.
Youād think that, at this point, LW style AGI wish fulfilment fanfic would have been milked dry for building hype, but apparently Salty doesnāt!
The cult will be the very last constituency to drop away, and likely form the majority of his hiring pool at this point, especially to replace the high-level attrition they suffered last year.
You know, i wondered how come that in modern, tech literate, western allied country presidency was captured by a cult. (South Korea) i donāt wonder about that anymore