Israel invading Gaza with ground troops would provoke a response from Hezbollah and probably some other nearby nations, and they just spent the last year sending a bunch of their shit to Ukraine. Not to mention that Hamas is expecting a response and probably has all kinds of ambushes ready to go.
I don’t know if the Israeli government is insane enough to go in, but it will be the beginning of the end for them if they do.
it will be the beginning of the end for them if they do.
Please don’t hang too much hope on this. The counter-offensive will likely be absolute barbarism. Israel has an enormous military advantage. I don’t know what will happen but it’s very likely that Palestine’s position will be drastically worse when this is over. I am sure they will fight with valiant creativity and unimaginable bravery, but I need you all to be ready to keep going if this results in a crushing defeat.
Palestine cannot win alone, but I do not think they will be alone. That’s part of why the initial offensive was so successful, Israel can’t put its army surrounding Gaza when Syria and Iran and Egypt exist.
I need you all to be ready to keep going if this results in a crushing defeat.
Israel has the unlimited backing of the great shaytan and unlike Ukraine is not utilised to grind down the military of a geopolitical rival. I hoped that the hostages taken by Hamas might deter any extreme excesses from the IDF but the unrelenting air strikes indicate that the Israeli government is more than willing to make a couple hundred martyrs.
Israel had unlimited backing by the US when they got thoroughly embarrassed by Hezbollah in '06 too. it seems like Hezbollah’s willing to get involved in the case of a ground invasion, I don’t think it’d turn out well for Israel.
Israel has said they will level Damascus and kill Assad if Hezbollah invaded them, which seems odd but they are willing to drag a 3rd party into the war. If Syria and Lebanon are going in, Iran and Iraq likely will too at some level
The rise of cheap guided munition warfare is going to completely decimate the supposed technological advantage that Israel has over its neighbours.
Fighters are vulnerable to MANPADS, tanks are vulnerable to drones, and the end result of all of this is that whoever has the industrial capacity for more guided munitions wins. Air superiority is useless if you can’t get within infrared range (50-80km) for CAS. You can’t do SEAD if the missile that can pop you out of the sky can be carried on someone’s shoulder. Armoured assaults are similarly useless if the guided munitions are both cheaper, have longer range, and are easier to pilot than your armour. Even piloted drones have substantially greater mobility than even the best armoured vehicles (because, y’know, you can operate them out of any moving thing) and the asymmetric cost of a defense system (the PATRIOT is estimated at 4 million per intercept) makes conventional Western doctrine unsustainable.
The entire principle of modern warfare seems to be centered around asymmetric response: instead of overwhelming the enemy with big arrow combined arms offensives, you want to whittle down your enemy with constant precision strikes that expend more of their resources than your own. As opposed to the dynamic supply lines necessitated by big offensives in prior conflicts, the core element today is efficient logistics assuming static frontlines. It’s far more similar to WW1-era doctrine than WW2-era doctrine.
That’s what I’ve gathered from both sides in the Ukraine conflict… but it’ll be interesting to see if the same applies to a potential Arab War.
Would be one of the few ways I could see Israel lose hard…mind you I feel the USA might step in to stop that from happening but it would become an absolute clusterfuck
I cannot think of a single thing better for Syrian unity than fighting a war with Israel that was instigated by Israel. It’s exactly what Assad needs to consolidate power, because he’s currently in the rather inconvenient position of having to rebuild from a civil war he was involved in. If Israel attacks, Assad has a scapegoat for all the societal and economic problems in Syria and allows for more cautious powers (e.g. China) to be more flexible in the aid and investment they provide.
According to the Israeli newspaper “Yedioth Ahronoth”, Israel sent a warning to the Lebanese Hezbollah, via France, that if it entered the war, Israel might “direct strikes against Damascus, such as the strikes it directed against the southern suburbs, and that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his regime would be in danger
I hoped that the hostages taken by Hamas might deter any extreme excesses from the IDF
Israel already said they will bomb houses indiscriminately without checking if they contain hostages beforehand IIRC; they don’t care.
the Israeli government is more than willing to make a couple hundred martyrs
Already more than 400 Palestinians have been killed in retaliatory airstrikes, including at least 20 children.
Also, while Israel has the backing of the imperial core, ultimately if the recent events have proved something it’s that no matter their advances in terms of means / funds / tech, ultimately sufficiently organized and motivated resistance fighters made that count for very little. Erez crossing for example was supposed to be an ultra-secure high tech border checkpoint and it got wrecked instantly.
is on the other side of the globe (carrier fleets are a joke in 2023); Iran and Egypt are right next door. Palestine, on its own, cannot defeat Israel, but with the help of its neighbors, I believe it can.
Eh, oppressing poor civilians is about what carriers are useful for in 2023, and the IRGCN would have to transit Suez to get to them. Most likely, the strike group is there to provide Anti-Ballistic Missile coverage for
They basically have to go in. The Palestinians have taken hundreds of Israeli prisoners, high value military ones too, and humiliated Israel on the international stage. It would be the end of Netanyahu’s government to do anything besides crank the war crimes to 11.
Israel invading Gaza with ground troops would provoke a response from Hezbollah and probably some other nearby nations, and they just spent the last year sending a bunch of their shit to Ukraine. Not to mention that Hamas is expecting a response and probably has all kinds of ambushes ready to go.
I don’t know if the Israeli government is insane enough to go in, but it will be the beginning of the end for them if they do.
Please don’t hang too much hope on this. The counter-offensive will likely be absolute barbarism. Israel has an enormous military advantage. I don’t know what will happen but it’s very likely that Palestine’s position will be drastically worse when this is over. I am sure they will fight with valiant creativity and unimaginable bravery, but I need you all to be ready to keep going if this results in a crushing defeat.
Palestine cannot win alone, but I do not think they will be alone. That’s part of why the initial offensive was so successful, Israel can’t put its army surrounding Gaza when Syria and Iran and Egypt exist.
Nothing online matters
I think they mean on a personal level to not pin all your hopes to this
We’re leftists, swallowing defeat is most of our history
If that were true, the age of god-kings, or that of absolute monarchs, would probably still be around.
The advantage of leftists is they only need to succeed once. They can still lose most of the time and come out ahead in the long term.
If we’re still here after the commune and the USSR’s collapse we’re not going anywhere.
People forget the first 300 years of Capitalism was also crushing defeat vs the Fuedalists.
“we” as leftists might still be here but that doesn’t mean most of the Palestinians will be
Israel has the unlimited backing of the great shaytan and unlike Ukraine is not utilised to grind down the military of a geopolitical rival. I hoped that the hostages taken by Hamas might deter any extreme excesses from the IDF but the unrelenting air strikes indicate that the Israeli government is more than willing to make a couple hundred martyrs.
Israel had unlimited backing by the US when they got thoroughly embarrassed by Hezbollah in '06 too. it seems like Hezbollah’s willing to get involved in the case of a ground invasion, I don’t think it’d turn out well for Israel.
Israel has said they will level Damascus and kill Assad if Hezbollah invaded them, which seems odd but they are willing to drag a 3rd party into the war. If Syria and Lebanon are going in, Iran and Iraq likely will too at some level
declaring war on like 4 different fronts can only go well
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The rise of cheap guided munition warfare is going to completely decimate the supposed technological advantage that Israel has over its neighbours.
Fighters are vulnerable to MANPADS, tanks are vulnerable to drones, and the end result of all of this is that whoever has the industrial capacity for more guided munitions wins. Air superiority is useless if you can’t get within infrared range (50-80km) for CAS. You can’t do SEAD if the missile that can pop you out of the sky can be carried on someone’s shoulder. Armoured assaults are similarly useless if the guided munitions are both cheaper, have longer range, and are easier to pilot than your armour. Even piloted drones have substantially greater mobility than even the best armoured vehicles (because, y’know, you can operate them out of any moving thing) and the asymmetric cost of a defense system (the PATRIOT is estimated at 4 million per intercept) makes conventional Western doctrine unsustainable.
The entire principle of modern warfare seems to be centered around asymmetric response: instead of overwhelming the enemy with big arrow combined arms offensives, you want to whittle down your enemy with constant precision strikes that expend more of their resources than your own. As opposed to the dynamic supply lines necessitated by big offensives in prior conflicts, the core element today is efficient logistics assuming static frontlines. It’s far more similar to WW1-era doctrine than WW2-era doctrine.
That’s what I’ve gathered from both sides in the Ukraine conflict… but it’ll be interesting to see if the same applies to a potential Arab War.
Would be one of the few ways I could see Israel lose hard…mind you I feel the USA might step in to stop that from happening but it would become an absolute clusterfuck
I cannot think of a single thing better for Syrian unity than fighting a war with Israel that was instigated by Israel. It’s exactly what Assad needs to consolidate power, because he’s currently in the rather inconvenient position of having to rebuild from a civil war he was involved in. If Israel attacks, Assad has a scapegoat for all the societal and economic problems in Syria and allows for more cautious powers (e.g. China) to be more flexible in the aid and investment they provide.
He also can take back the golan heights.
Do you have any sources? I was trying to find a reference online but couldn’t.
https://globeecho.com/politics/israel-threatens-hezbollah-intervention-leads-to-a-strike-on-damascus-and-assad/
https://www.archyde.com/israeli-threat-to-hezbollah-and-syria-updates-on-gaza-conflict-and-potential-strikes/
Israel already said they will bomb houses indiscriminately without checking if they contain hostages beforehand IIRC; they don’t care.
Already more than 400 Palestinians have been killed in retaliatory airstrikes, including at least 20 children.
Also, while Israel has the backing of the imperial core, ultimately if the recent events have proved something it’s that no matter their advances in terms of means / funds / tech, ultimately sufficiently organized and motivated resistance fighters made that count for very little. Erez crossing for example was supposed to be an ultra-secure high tech border checkpoint and it got wrecked instantly.
According to the guardian, it’s 91 children.
Eh, oppressing poor civilians is about what carriers are useful for in 2023, and the IRGCN would have to transit Suez to get to them. Most likely, the strike group is there to provide Anti-Ballistic Missile coverage for
all the pieces are falling into place
They basically have to go in. The Palestinians have taken hundreds of Israeli prisoners, high value military ones too, and humiliated Israel on the international stage. It would be the end of Netanyahu’s government to do anything besides crank the war crimes to 11.
I’m not holding my breath on it.
Maybe, but there’s indications Iran helped with planning this insurrection and Hezbollah has definitely mobilised. We’ll see.
What indications are those? I assumed everyone saying that on cable news was just coping and trying to blame Iran because they’re the bad guy
There’s 0 proof Iran helped Hamas
Afaik they haven’t even been close allies for years now