This is opinion. So read it as such. But consider it please.
Obviously if you read this based on the title. I assume you oppose the Tories.
But if you are wondering why labour are so keen to manage expectations. There is a reason.
Campaign funding wise the Tories are estimated to be 19m ahead of labour. But honestly at the moment they are not spending a huge amount more.
We know the Tories are skilled at election manipulation. So there is genuine fear that the Tories plan to launch a campaign within the last few days.
I.E. when there is less time and funding to ensure fact checking is effective.
They know Starmer is more publicity aware then Corbyn was. He is able to play it in a way that dose not scare traditional Conservative voters.
They also know thanks to Boris, that the courts are unable to punish them for outright lies during any political campaign. And that Rishi is prepared to lie about and accuse civil servants of lying when challenged.
As huge as polling is against the Tories. All it would take is some dramatic claim against the party or Starmer. To convince Tory traditional voters to bite their tongue and vote Tory. While convincing left wing voters not to vote or to switch to 3rd party in seats where labour are the 1st or 2nd party.
The fact we know they have a huge amount of money unspent. Makes it clear they plan to launch something nearer the end of the election. And the only advantage of leaving it so late. Is it will limit the ability of the party to effectively react. Or fact checkers to be able to prove and distribute evidence of lies.
Please be prepared for this.
Tories are pretty boned, period, whenever they launch their last push - the actual threat are Reform, who will either form a coalition with whoever it takes to gain a majority in this election, or outright win next time after the PLP fundamentally change nothing.
I am old enough to have thought that in the past. The money that backs the Tories will not give up. Given how open the party has been about its extrean right over the last few years.
Honestly until the 5th July it is very dangerous to think that way. All these predictions are based on 65 to 75% turn out. That is high. The Tories do not need to convince folks to vote Tory. They are better off stopping folks voting labour. At least in seats where a 3rd party is not closer to Tory in polling.
If they reduce turn out for labour while increasing support for more left of centre parties. They can do to labour what Corbyn did to may. Create a weak minority party where the existing devisions in the PLP prevent the party achieving much.
If you’ve been voting for 30+ years you should have the experience to recognise how close in policy the current PLP are to the Tories. If you’re just talking about the last few elections you were naive and deserved to be surprised that the PLP would rather sabotage a left wing candidate than win an election.
The money that backs the Tories is not particularly attached to the Tories, and will move (has already been moving) to the PLP and any other sources of power it can find should the Tories lose. It does not have an ideology beyond constant growth, and is happy to pay members of any party for access.
I’m 53 so the former. But also experienced enough to have see your argument before. Because I was making them.
I and many my age said exactly the same thing about Tony Blair’s leadership of the party. And heck I have been making the argument for the last few years post Corbyn.
But I also have the experience to know how much better life under right wing labour is then even left wing Tories. So 10 days before the election. Fighting to change the options we have is a losing battle. The fight is instead between 5 years of a lesser evil. Or a much much greater one.
Because at the end of it. Right wing labour is not trying to start a war against the poor. Whereas the Conservative Party is very much built from a history of embedded privileged. It literally grew from the lords side of a fight between the house of lords vs the house of commons. I.E. feudalism vs commoners. The power of generational privileged wealth vs democracy. (As limited as it was in those days)
While since 1689 the structure of parliament has changed hugely. That is the historical predecessor to the Tories losing against the Liberals and Labour representing the rights of commons.
And any honest look at the ideology of the 2 main parties is still based on privileged wealth vs the early idea of the middle class. I.E. Earned wealth (although the far left would have issues with earned I agree with). The left wing of the labour party (that both started it and removed the Liberals from opposition. ) Cannot win this election. But we can sure as hell give it to the Tories unintentionally. Very like the right of the party did in 2019 (ill add intentionally here).
What I see very strongly is an attempt by Tories to blame the poor for poverty. As they always do. vs an attempt by Labour to turn what they call the centre. But in the feudal past our parliament grew in was referred to as the middle class. I.E. traders and business men not born into generational wealth.
I hate that FPTP is so shitty. And have seen how shitty since the 1980s. But again 10 days till the election. Its time to bite your anger down and choose the lesser evil. Because the greater evil knows how to use yours and my anger to gain power.
I mean fingers crossed both Labour and Tories are
If Lib Dems get opposition it’ll hopefully give people the idea they can vote for who they want instead of tactically, so vote share of Reform, Lib Dem, Green and whoever else increases