maybe a sign that european leaders are starting to get a little nervous about the implications of a regional war? we’ve seen how disastrous the (failed) attempt of weaning europe off russian oil has been for their industries. what would happen then if suddenly the export of oil from the middle east comes to a sudden stop? i’m not sure european leaders are as keen on this murder-suicide pact as the US seems to be
Regional war would fuck the EU hard.
Fuck the eu and 80% of euros living there. May the strongest consequences fall upon architects of white supremacy and their descendants.
Europe hasn’t even begun to suffer for their crimes against humanity implemented on the global south.
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60% of your takes are good; 40% are similar to this one you’ve just posted. You’re close but miss some significant points.
Money doesn’t mean anything if you can’t get fuel. Just bc the demand will be higher doesn’t mean the supply will be there.
When they lost Russian gas, they lost their biggest source of fuel. No one can replace Russia’s supply, even if the whole of the GCC pumped everything they have it wouldn’t cover what Russia was supplying.
What would happen is their other major source of fuel would shrivel up if a regional war breaks out.
America will never be able to cover that additional loss, they can’t even cover the loss of Russia. What will happen is that gas and oil will be even more expensive AND their supply would be cut down to the point of rationing fuel.
It will only expedite the de-industrialization of the EU.
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This is true, but the rapid rise in prices for gas and oil will impact every other aspect of their economy. They can’t use nuclear energy for ships, planes, and cars. Unless most of France uses electric appliances, water heaters, and HVAC I think the resulting surge in oil and gas prices will still impact the average French citizen.
And that energy security from nuclear isn’t guaranteed, the Alliance of Sahel States are much stronger and more united now than they were before. Today they have cheap uranium from niger, tomorrow might not be the case. Should a regional war break out in western Asia, we can assume at least a decade before gas and oil prices/demand go back to pre-war conditions. That’s an optimistic estimate too.
The loss of industry and shrinking GDP of their neighbors has affected them and will continue to affect them; there’s going to be an increase in EU citizens looking for a job outside of their country. Most people will try their best to stay as local as possible, if a German had to choose between France and the US- you get the point.
France has a lot to lose economically should a regional war begin, even if it is the most resistant to the effects.
Edit: France gets majority of its gas from Norway as of the moment, but as for crude oil they receive 2.6B$ worth of crude from Saudi Arabia. I got this from the OEC.
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I think his bumbling deserves further scrutiny. I never thought European politics would interest me, but seeing the way their leaders serve the US is fun. The way they try to maintain a fig leaf of legitimacy and then barrel right into full throated murderous glee for the empire and back into smol bean mode
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Thank you for pointing this out, I was only considering how recently Euros have come to terms with the likelihood non-NATO (or maybe even NATO who knows) Europe could eat a tactical nuke without serious repercussions which were previously implied.
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Despite being knee deep in reading about this I have zero notes about how Europe helps the US control immigration, kind of embarrassing that I am still on the “uhhh bad look, nuclear war?” bent in 2024 but it is what it is 🤕
This captures the bleakness of the situation in a nut shell, the US will create millions of refugees that will travel to Europe.
And of course knowing how hateful and violent the average euro is, the far right will win.
Now this is probably me being super optimistic and naive, and far be it from me to have anything nice to say about the French, but a part of me does wonder if perhaps this does come from a more altruistic place (or at least partly). I recall when that gigantic explosion happened in Lebanon (can’t recall which year), Macron actually visited them and the Lebanese people were actually quite happy to receive him and were even asking for France’s aid. A part of me wonders if perhaps Macron has a special place in his heart for Lebanon, although I do recognize it may just be naivety on my part.
