Space rock now has 2.3% risk of collision – up from 1.3% in December – but danger is likely to fall with more data
Archived version: https://archive.is/newest/https://www.theguardian.com/science/2025/feb/06/asteroid-impact-chances
Disclaimer: The article linked is from a single source with a single perspective. Make sure to cross-check information against multiple sources to get a comprehensive view on the situation.
Don’t panic? I think a lot of people may be rooting for the asteroid by the time it gets here.
I’ve got my towel, I’m ready.
by the time it gets here
Can we move the timetable up?
I mean, think of all the jobs it will bring. And at least asteroids will never lie to you.
By the time it gets here? How about right now.
Maybe it will finally uncover some rare earth
It’s too small and too far out for it to matter. It’s 7 years out, low likelihood, and too small to do anything but erase a city. We have civilization-ending threats at home.
It’ll do more than wipe out a city. If it hits in a populated area it’ll take out an entire region, a city in all its surrounding accoutrements + a fair amount of peripheral land.
I know who I’m voting for in 2032, still disappointed he lost in 2024
What are the odds that if it hits the Earth it would hit Moscow? Asking for my friends.
The impact risk corridor isn’t anywhere near Russia.
See: https://iawn.net//documents/NOTIFICATIONS/IAWN_Potential_Impact_Notification_2024_YR4.pdf
Here’s an image to visualise if that’s more to your liking: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8a/2024_YR4_risk_corridor.png
Pretty sure I am in the “survived the initial impact, now get to suffer.”
I guess it depends of the point of reference. I would say that looks pretty close to Russia.
Impact Risk Corridor: The impact risk corridor for 2024 YR4, which is the region of Earth along which a potential impact could occur, extends across the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia
The same of it hitting Washington D.C.
Sad.
